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Final Oscars Predictions: Best Director The Daniels to Become the Third Filmmaking Pairing

Steven Spielberg still has a shot at winning, despite 'Everything Everywhere' being the front-runner in best picture

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Director

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

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“Everything Everywhere All at Once” directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert beat “The Fabelmans” helmer Steven Spielberg on his DGA home turf. At 35 years old each, Kwan and Scheinert are the youngest pair ever to win DGA and could be the seventh-youngest director Oscar winners.

If Spielberg wins, he’ll tie for the second most directing wins in history, joining Frank Capra and William Wyler. John Ford sits in first place with four.

Will Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Could Win: Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Should Win: Todd Field, “Tár” (Focus Features)
Should have been here: S.S. Rajamouli, “RRR” (Variance Films)

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2Steven Spielberg“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
3Todd Field“Tár”Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
4Martin McDonagh“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
5Ruben Östlund“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
A fashion model celebrity couple join an eventful cruise for the super-rich.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog" (Netflix)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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